(By Eugene Kiely and Robert Farley,
Factcheck.org, 17 August 2021)
The blame
game has begun over who lost Afghanistan.
The fact is, President Joe Biden and his predecessor, Donald Trump, were
both eager to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan and end what Biden referred
to in his Aug. 16 speech as “America’s longest war.”
The Trump
administration in February 2020 negotiated a withdrawal agreement with the Taliban that excluded the Afghan government, freed 5,000 imprisoned
Taliban soldiers and set a date certain of May 1, 2021, for the final
withdrawal.
And the
Trump administration kept to the pact, reducing U.S. troop levels from
about 13,000 to 2,500, even though the Taliban continued to attack Afghan government forces and welcomed al-Qaeda terrorists into the Taliban
leadership.
Biden
delayed the May 1 withdrawal date that he inherited. But ultimately his
administration pushed ahead with a plan to withdraw by Aug. 31, despite obvious
signs that the Taliban wasn’t complying with the agreement and had a stated goal to create an “Islamic government” in
Afghanistan after the U.S. left, even if it meant it had to “continue our war
to achieve our goal.”
Biden assured Americans last month that a Taliban takeover
of Afghanistan was “not inevitable,” and denied that U.S. intelligence assessed
that the Afghan government would likely collapse. But it did — and quickly.
Here we lay
out many of the key diplomatic decisions, military actions, presidential
pronouncements and expert assessments of the withdrawal agreement that ended
the U.S. military’s 20-year war in Afghanistan — a war that has “taken the
lives of nearly 2,500 U.S. servicemen and servicewomen, cost a trillion
dollars, and occupied the attention of four presidential administrations,” as
the Afghanistan Study Group put it in a February report.
Trump Strikes a Deal
Feb. 29,
2020 — U.S. and
Taliban sign an agreement that sets the terms for a U.S. withdrawal
from Afghanistan by May 1, 2021, but do not release two classified annexes that
set the conditions for U.S. withdrawal. At the time of the agreement, the U.S.
had about 13,000 troops in Afghanistan, according to a Department of Defense inspector general
report.
The
withdrawal of U.S. troops is contingent on the “Taliban’s action against
al-Qaeda and other terrorists who could threaten us,” Trump says in a speech at the Conservative Political Active
Conference. (U.S. withdrawals, however, occurred despite the fact that the
Defense Department inspector general’s office repeatedly reported that the
Taliban worked with al-Qaeda.)
The pact includes
the release of 5,000 Taliban fighters who have been held prisoners by the
Afghanistan government, which is not a party to the agreement.
March 1,
2020 — Afghan
President Ashraf Ghani objects to a provision in the agreement that would
require his country to release 5,000 Taliban prisoners. “Freeing Taliban
prisoners is not [under] the authority of America but the authority of the
Afghan government,” Ghani says. “There has been no commitment for the release of
5,000 prisoners.”
March 4,
2020 — Chairman
of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley tells the Senate Armed Services Committee that the
Taliban pledged in the classified documents not to attack U.S. troops and
coalition forces or launch “high-profile attacks,” including in Afghanistan’s
34 provincial capitals. “[T]he Taliban have signed up to a whole series of
conditions … all the Members of the Congress have all the documents associated
with this agreement,” Milley says.
Despite the
agreement, the Taliban attack Afghan forces in Helmand province, and the U.S.
responds with an air strike.
March 10,
2020 — Under
pressure from the U.S., Ghani orders the release of 1,500 Taliban prisoners, but at
the rate of 100 per day.
May 19,
2020 — In
releasing its quarterly report on Afghanistan, the DOD inspector
general’s office says the U.S. cut troop levels in Afghanistan by more than
4,000, even though “the Taliban escalated violence further after signing the
agreement.”
“U.S.
officials stated the Taliban must reduce violence as a necessary condition for
continued U.S. reduction in forces and that remaining high levels of violence
could jeopardize the U.S.-Taliban agreement,” according to the report, which covered activity from
Jan. 1, 2020, to March 31, 2020. “Even still, the United States began to reduce
its forces in Afghanistan from roughly 13,000 to 8,600.”
Aug. 18,
2020 — In
releasing a report that covered activity in Afghanistan from April
1, 2020, to June 30, 2020, the Defense Department inspector general’s office
says, “The Taliban did not appear to uphold its commitment to distance itself
from terrorist organizations in Afghanistan. UN and U.S. officials reported
that the Taliban continued to support al-Qaeda, and conducted joint attacks
with al-Qaeda members against Afghan National Defense and Security Forces.”
Sept. 3,
2020 —
Afghanistan releases the final 400 Taliban prisoners, as required under
the U.S.-Taliban agreement, clearing the way for intra-Afghan peace talks to
begin.
Sept. 12,
2020 — After
seven months of delays, Afghanistan government officials and Taliban
representatives meet in Qatar for peace talks. The U.S.-Taliban
agreement called for the first peace talks to begin on March 10.
Sept. 16,
2020 — The
Taliban continued attacks on government forces. The Voice of America reported that “Taliban attacks in three provinces
across northern Afghanistan since Tuesday killed at least 17 people, including six
civilians, and wounded scores of others even as a Taliban political team was
negotiating peace with Afghan government representatives in Doha, Qatar.”
Sept. 18,
2020 — At a
press conference, Trump says, “We’re dealing very well with the Taliban.
They’re very tough, they’re very smart, they’re very sharp. But, you
know, it’s been 19 years, and even they are tired of fighting, in all
fairness.”
Nov. 16,
2020 —
Congressional Republicans, responding to news reports that the Trump administration will rapidly
reduce forces in Afghanistan, warn of what Sen. Marco Rubio calls “a Saigon-type of
situation” in Afghanistan. “A rapid withdrawal of U.S. forces from Afghanistan
now would hurt our allies and delight the people who wish us harm,” Senate
Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says.
Nov. 17,
2020 — Acting
Secretary of Defense Christopher Miller formally announces that the U.S. will reduce U.S. forces in
Afghanistan to 2,500 by Jan. 15, 2021.
On the same
day, the Defense Department IG’s office released a report for the quarter ending Sept. 30,
2020, that said the peace negotiations between the Afghan government and
Taliban representatives had stalled and violence increased. “At the same time,
the Taliban increased its attacks against Afghan forces, leading to
‘distressingly high’ levels of violence that could threaten the peace
agreement,” the report said.
Dec. 2,
2020 — After
past false starts, Afghan and Taliban negotiators agree on a framework to govern peace
negotiations. “At the same time, the Taliban continued its ‘fight and talk’
strategy, increasing violence across the country to increase its leverage with
the Afghan government in negotiations,” the Defense Department IG’s office said
a quarterly report covering this period.
The IG
report also continued to warn that the Taliban was apparently violating the
withdrawal agreement. “This withdrawal is contingent on the Taliban abiding by
its commitments under the agreement, which include not allowing terrorists to
use Afghan soil to threaten the United States and its allies,” the report said. “However, it was unclear whether the
Taliban was in compliance with the agreement, as members of al-Qaeda were
integrated into the Taliban’s leadership and command structure.”
Jan. 15 — “Today, U.S. force levels in
Afghanistan have reached 2,500,” Miller, the acting defense secretary, says in a statement. “[T]his drawdown brings U.S.
forces in the country to their lowest levels since 2001.”
Afghanistan’s
First Vice President Amrullah Saleh tells the
BBC that the Trump administration made too many concessions to the
Taliban. “I am telling [the United States] as a friend and as an ally that
trusting the Taliban without putting in a verification mechanism is going to be
a fatal mistake,” Saleh says, adding that Afghanistan leaders warned the U.S.
that “violence will spike” as the 5,000 Taliban prisoners were released.
“Violence has spiked,” he added.
Biden Follows Through
Feb. 3 — The Afghanistan Study Group,
which was created by Congress in December 2019 and charged with making policy
recommendations for a peaceful transition in Afghanistan, releases a report recommending changes to the
agreement with the Taliban. “The most important revision is to ensure that a
complete withdrawal of U.S. troops is based not on an inflexible timeline but
on all parties fulfilling their commitments, including the Taliban making good
on its promises to contain terrorist groups and reduce violence against the
Afghan people, and making compromises to achieve a political settlement,” it
said.
Feb. 19 — Biden reiterates his campaign
promise to bring U.S. troops home from Afghanistan, saying
during remarks at
the Munich Security Conference, “My administration strongly supports the
diplomatic process that’s underway and to bring an end to this war that is
closing out 20 years. We remain committed to ensuring that Afghanistan never
again provides a base for terrorist attacks against the United States and our
partners and our interests.”
March 7 — Secretary of State Antony
Blinken tells Afghanistan President Ashra Ghani that, despite
future U.S. financial assistance, he is “concerned that the security situation
will worsen and the Taliban could make rapid territorial gains.”
March 25 — Gen. Richard Clarke,
commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command, tells the Senate Armed Services Committee that “it is
clear that the Taliban have not upheld what they said they would do and reduce
the violence. While…they have not attacked U.S. forces, it is clear that they
took a deliberate approach and increased their violence…since the peace accords
were signed.”
March 25
— During
a press
conference at the White House, Biden says “it’s going to be hard to
meet the May 1 deadline. Just in terms of tactical reasons, it’s hard to get
those troops out.” He assures that “if we leave, we’re going to do so in a safe
and orderly way.” Without committing to a pullout date, Biden says, “it is not
my intention to stay there for a long time. But the question is: How and in
what circumstances do we meet that agreement that was made by President Trump
to leave under a deal that looks like it’s not being able to be worked out to
begin with? How is that done? But we are not staying a long time.”
April 14
— Saying it is
“time to end the forever war,” Biden announces that all troops will be removed
from Afghanistan by Sept. 11.
In a
speech explaining the decision, Biden says he became convinced
after trip to Afghanistan in 2008 that “more and endless American
military force could not create or sustain a durable Afghan government.” Biden
says the U.S. achieved its initial and primary objective, “to ensure
Afghanistan would not be used as a base from which to attack our homeland
again” and that “our reasons for remaining in Afghanistan are becoming
increasingly unclear.”
Biden says
he “inherited a diplomatic agreement” between the U.S. and the Taliban that all
U.S. forces would be out by May 1. “It is perhaps not what I would have
negotiated myself, but it was an agreement made by the United States
government, and that means something,” Biden says, adding that final troop
withdrawal would begin on May 1.
“We will not
conduct a hasty rush to the exit,” Biden says. “We’ll do it responsibly,
deliberately, and safely.” Biden assures Americans that the U.S. has “trained
and equipped a standing force of over 300,000 Afghan personnel” and that
“they’ll continue to fight valiantly, on behalf of the Afghans, at great cost.”
April 15 — In response to Biden’s
decision to delay full withdrawal until Sept. 11, the Taliban releases a statement that says failure to complete the withdrawal
by May 1 “opens the way for [the Taliban] to take every necessary
countermeasure, hence the American side will be held responsible for all future
consequences.”
April 18
— In a released
statement, Trump criticizes Biden’s Sept. 11 withdrawal deadline saying,
“we can and should get out earlier.” He concludes, “Getting out of Afghanistan
is a wonderful and positive thing to do. I planned to withdraw on May 1st, and
we should keep as close to that schedule as possible.”
May 18 — The Defense Department
IG releases a report for the first three months of 2021
that says the Taliban had increased its attacks against Afghanistan government
forces during this period and appears to be preparing with al-Qaeda for
“large-scale offensives.”
“The Taliban
initiated 37 percent more attacks this quarter than during the same period in
2020,” the report said. “According to the Defense Intelligence Agency, the
Taliban maintained close ties with al-Qaeda and was very likely preparing for
large-scale offensives against population centers and Afghan government
installations.”
May 18 — In a House
hearing on U.S. policy in Afghanistan, Zalmay Khalilzad, the U.S.
special representative for Afghanistan reconciliation, downplays the prospect
of a swift Taliban takeover when U.S. forces leave. “If they [Taliban] pursue,
in my judgment, a military victory, it will result in a long war, because
Afghan security forces will fight, other Afghans will fight, neighbors will
come to support different forces,” Khalilzad
says.
Later Khalilzad
added, “I personally believe that the statements that the [Afghan] forces
will disintegrate, and the Talibs will take over in short order are mistaken.
The real choices that the Afghans will face is between a long war and
negotiated settlement.”
June 8 — Taliban spokesman Zabihullah
Mujahid tells Foreign Policy that after foreign forces leave
Afghanistan the group’s goal is to create an “Islamic government,” and “we will
be compelled to continue our war to achieve our goal.”
June 26 — At a
rally in Ohio, his first since leaving office, Trump boasts that Biden
can’t stop the process he started to remove troops from Afghanistan, and
acknowledges the Afghan government won’t last once U.S. troops leave.
“I started
the process,” Trump says. “All the troops are coming back home. They [the Biden
administration] couldn’t stop the process. 21 years is enough. Don’t we think?
21 years. They couldn’t stop the process. They wanted to, but it was very tough
to stop the process when other things… It’s a shame. 21 years, by a government
that wouldn’t last. The only way they last is if we’re there. What are we going
to say? We’ll stay for another 21 years, then we’ll stay for another 50. The
whole thing is ridiculous. … We’re bringing troops back home from Afghanistan.”
July 6 — The U.S. military confirms it has pulled out of Bagram
Airfield, its largest airfield in the Afghanistan, as the final withdrawal
nears.
July 8 — Saying “speed is safety,” Biden
moves up the timeline for full troop withdrawal to Aug. 31. Biden acknowledges the move comes as the Taliban “is at its
strongest militarily since 2001.” Biden says if he went back on the agreement
that Trump made, the Taliban “would have again begun to target our forces” and
that “staying would have meant U.S. troops taking casualties. … Once that
agreement with the Taliban had been made, staying with a bare minimum force was
no longer possible.”
Biden
assures Americans that a Taliban takeover of Afghanistan “is not inevitable,”
and denies that U.S. intelligence assessed that the Afghan government would
likely collapse.
Asked if he
sees any parallels between the withdrawals from Vietnam Afghanistan, Biden
responds, “None whatsoever. Zero. … The Taliban is not the south — the North
Vietnamese army. They’re not — they’re not remotely comparable in terms of
capability. There’s going to be no circumstance where you see people
being lifted off the roof of a embassy in the — of the United States from
Afghanistan. It is not at all comparable.”
Biden adds
that “the likelihood there’s going to be the Taliban overrunning everything and
owning the whole country is highly unlikely.”
Biden
also promises to help accelerate the issuance of special visas for Afghan
nationals who helped the U.S. during the war.
July 24 — At a
rally in Phoenix, Trump again boasts, “I started the move out of
Afghanistan,” adding “I think it was impossible for him [Biden] to stop it, but
it was a much different deal.”
Trump says
that when he was president, in a phone conversation with the leader of the
Taliban, he warned that after U.S. troops leave if “you decide to do something
terrible to our country … we are going to come back and we are going to hit you
harder than any country has ever been hit.” Trump says he believes the two “had
a real understanding” but that after Trump left office “now they’re going wild
over there.”
Aug. 6 — The Taliban takes control of its first province — the capital of
Nimroz province in Afghanistan — despite the agreement it signed with the U.S.
Aug. 15 — Taliban fighters enter the
Afghanistan capital Kabul; the Afghan president flees the
country; U.S. evacuates diplomats from its embassy by helicopter.
Aug. 16 — In a speech to the nation, Biden says, “I do not regret my
decision to end America’s warfighting in Afghanistan,” and deflected blame for
the government’s swift collapse.
“The truth
is: This did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated. So what’s happened?
Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country. The Afghan military
collapsed, sometimes without trying to fight,” the president said. “If
anything, the developments of the past week reinforced that ending U.S.
military involvement in Afghanistan now was the right decision.”
https://www.factcheck.org/2021/08/timeline-of-u-s-withdrawal-from-afghanistan/
